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Turkey and the European Dilemma: Between Geopolitical Bridges and Democratic Fractures

Turkey occupies a unique position on the global geopolitical chessboard. Situated between Europe and Asia, with a millennia-old history that spans empires, religions, and cultures, the country is often seen as a bridge between East and West. However, this bridge has been marked by tensions, contradictions, and challenges that call into question its full integration into the European Union (EU).

The human rights situation in Turkey has been the subject of recurring criticism from international organisations and European institutions. Since the attempted coup in 2016, the Turkish government has intensified repressive measures, leading to the arrest of thousands of military personnel, judges, journalists, and academics. The institutional purge that followed was justified by the executive as a matter of national security, but its effects on the rule of law have been deep and lasting.

Freedom of the press, once vibrant, is now severely restricted. Several journalists have been detained for alleged links to terrorist organisations or for criticising the government. Independent media outlets face censorship, closure, or nationalisation. The BBC and Reporters Without Borders have denounced the expulsion of correspondents and the suspension of opposition channels, undermining media pluralism and democratic transparency.

The judiciary, in turn, has been accused of lacking independence. Cases such as that of Osman Kavala, a political activist detained for political reasons, and the continued pre-trial detention of journalists despite rulings from the Constitutional Court, illustrate the fragility of legal guarantees. Executive interference in judicial decisions erodes trust in institutions and distances Turkey from European standards of justice.

Turkey’s relations with Cyprus and Greece are historically complex and remain a major obstacle to its European integration. The occupation of northern Cyprus since 1974, following a pro-Greek coup, led to the creation of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara. This situation remains a point of friction with the EU, which recognises only the Cypriot government in the south of the island.

With Greece, tensions have manifested in territorial disputes in the Aegean Sea and the delimitation of exclusive economic zones. The exploration of hydrocarbons in the region has exacerbated conflicts, leading to diplomatic and military confrontations. Despite periods of rapprochement, such as after the 1999 earthquake, the two countries maintain a relationship marked by distrust and rivalry. Resolving these issues is seen as essential for any progress in Turkey’s EU accession negotiations. The Union has called for dialogue and mediation, but progress has been limited and often reversed by episodes of tension.

The EU is founded on principles such as democracy, respect for human rights, the rule of law, and freedom of expression. Turkey’s political alignment with these values has been increasingly questioned in recent years. The government of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has promoted a centralisation of power, with constitutional reforms that strengthened the presidential role and weakened parliament. The repression of social movements, persecution of political opponents, and restriction of civil liberties are incompatible with the Copenhagen criteria, which define the requirements for EU accession.

The banning of LGBTI events, discrimination against religious and ethnic minorities, and censorship on social media are examples of practices that clash with European values. Although formally a candidate for accession since 1999, Turkey has seen its process stagnate, with several negotiation chapters blocked. The EU has conditioned pre-accession funding on improvements in human rights, but results have been limited.

Despite these challenges, Turkey offers a significant set of contributions that could benefit the EU. Its economy, though marked by currency volatility and inflation, is robust and diversified. With a domestic market of over 85 million people, it presents relevant commercial and industrial opportunities.

Turkey’s geographic position is strategic. Located between Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, it serves as a vital energy and logistics corridor. Pipelines, gas routes, and trade routes pass through its territory, making it an essential partner in energy security and connectivity.

Turkey’s industrial and agricultural capacity is also remarkable. The country is one of the world’s largest producers of textiles, automobiles, and agricultural products. Its integration into the European value chain could enhance the EU’s competitiveness and diversify its supply sources.

Moreover, Turkey has played an important role in managing the migration crisis, hosting millions of Syrian refugees and cooperating with the EU to contain migration flows. This role, though controversial, has been recognised as essential for regional stability.

However, Turkey’s integration into the EU carries significant risks. Growing authoritarianism and political repression threaten the democratic cohesion of the bloc. The entry of a country with practices incompatible with European values could undermine the EU’s credibility and generate internal tensions.

Diplomatic conflicts with member states such as Greece and Cyprus could be exacerbated within the European structure, complicating decision-making and compromising political unity. Managing divergent interests would be complex and potentially paralysing.

The risk of institutional destabilisation is also relevant. Turkey’s entry would require significant adaptation of European institutions, notably in the European Parliament, where the number of Turkish deputies would impact the political balance. Full integration could provoke resistance among member states and fuel Eurosceptic movements.

Furthermore, the issue of religious freedom and secularism-pillars of the EU-could be tested in a country where political Islam has gained ground. Cultural and social compatibility would be a challenge, requiring efforts in integration and intercultural dialogue.

Thus, the relationship between Turkey and the EU is complex, multifaceted, and marked by advances and setbacks. Turkey represents both a strategic opportunity and a political challenge. Full integration would require deep reforms, mutual commitments, and a redefinition of Europe’s cultural and institutional boundaries.

The EU must continue to engage with Turkey, promoting democratic values and encouraging reform. The rapprochement should not be abandoned, but rather conditioned on respect for the fundamental principles that underpin the European project.

Turkey, for its part, must decide whether it wishes to be a full partner of Europe or pursue an autonomous path-with all the implications that entails. The bridge between East and West still stands, but crossing it requires courage, vision, and a commitment to the values that unite the peoples of Europe.

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